Thursday, April 19, 2018

Should I Get This Coin Graded?

This is a question I get asked repeatedly by new collectors who don't fully understand the coin market:  "Should I get this coin graded?"

The short answer is a resounding NO.

The long answer takes a more detailed explanation.  See my Coin Class video from several months back, embedded here for your amusement.


Plenty of folks will tell you to get it graded.  This may not be practical advice and is often given from an uninformed position.  Ultimately, you must make that decision on your own.  If you are unable to answer that question on your own, then you have not done the research required to make an informed decision.  If you have not done the research, you would probably be throwing your money out the window.

Let's say I can sell my house right now for $100,000.
If I were to renovate the kitchen, I could sell my house for $120,000.  BUT, if it costs more than $20,000 to renovate the kitchen, I end up with less than I started with.  If I do all the work myself, maybe I could do it cheaper, but how much would I have to save to make it worth the effort?
There is Opportunity Cost involved:  What if I invested that money in something else I could sell for more than I would make fixing up the kitchen?

The Susan B Anthony Dollar pictured below is a more practical example.  In MS65 condition, Numismedia suggests a fair market value of about $10.
NGC charges $16 to slab a Susan B Anthony Dollar, plus shipping and insurance.  This does not include the minimum $69 fee to become a member, whatever that means.
Fact of the matter is, if the member who had this coin slabbed had instead spent the dollar on junk food, it would have made a better investment.  If it had been thrown into a muddy bottom pond, the owner would have been better off.

Let's put math to work so you can see what I'm talking about:
  • Expected market value of a coin, without certification = A
  • Cost of certification, membership, shipping, insurance = B
  • Expected market value of a coin, with certification = C
  • C - (A + B) = D
If D is less than zero then you lose.
If D = zero, then you made no gain for your efforts.  B would have been better spent elsewhere.
Money Down The Drain
If D is greater than zero, then by how much?  Was it worth the time and effort?

You have to do the research required to estimate the expected market value of the coin.  This requires the skills to accurately grade the coin as well as some experience with the coin market.  Really, if you are not going to sell the coin, why have it slabbed in the first place?  
Since grading accuracy is required to determine value, you should already have a close estimate of the grade of the coin.  Only then would you be able to estimate the value of the slabbed coin.  If you are that skilled, why would you need a Third Party Grader?

Go back to the early 80s.  Back then it was not possible to send electronic photos around the world.  It was an expensive proposition to photograph a coin and send out catalogs to potential buyers.  TPGs came into being to facilitate Sight Unseen trading.  Fast forward to the present day.  A $20 digital camera can take professional quality photos.  The internet can send those photos to every point on the globe in seconds.  The need for sight unseen trading is gone.

I also want to dispel the notion that certification adds value.  The old adage is as pertinent now as ever:  Buy the coin, not the holder.  Some of these TPGs offer a guarantee that the coin is genuine and accurately graded.  That guarantee does add a slight value to the purchase, but the added value is a small percentage of the value of the coin.  Realistically the coin needs to be valued at a couple hundred bucks at least to make the investment worthwhile, and even then you would probably only get the benefit of the membership if you have a large number of coins certified.

The Barry Specimen

The Barry Specimen
The 1914-D Lincoln Cent pictured here was found by B Barry of Florida in, of all place, a coinstar reject tray.  Photos were posted on a social networking site and folks commented on the coin.  Some offered grades ranging from F to AU.  A few expressed interest in purchasing the coin if it was authenticated.  Several proclaimed the coin be graded ASAP!

Mr Barry sent the coin to NGC for certification through a dealer.  The cost with shipping, insurance, and the dealer's fee was around $80.

The coin went to auction on eBay, where I acquired the coin.  I was not surprised that NOT ONE of those folks who said to get it graded placed a bid on the coin.  It's easy to spend someone else's money.

The coin came back with a Details rating.  With the rating, there is no guarantee as would be offered on a straight graded coin.  For $80, all the seller got was a really nice holder.

When is it a good idea?
There are instances when it makes sense to submit a coin for grading and certification.  The first requirement is the expected market value of the certified coin exceeds the expected market value of the raw coin.  Other reasons include, but are not limited to
  • The coin is Rare.
  • The coin is Valuable
  • The coin is Unimpaired
  • The coin is of Superior Grade
  • Certification will allow the coin to be sold in a major auction
  • The coin will be included in a Registry Set
Recently an example of a 1969-S DDO-001 was found in circulation.  The coin was sent for certification and will likely proceed to Heritage Auctions where it will easily fetch several thousand dollars.  Prior to sending it for certification it was examined by my friend Dustin Morgan.  It was on his recommendation that the coin was submitted.

Have It Inspected First
Before bearing the cost of slabbing a coin, do your homework.  Solicit opinions in the various social networks.  See if there is substantial and credible interest in the coin.  You may choose to submit the coin for inspection.   Nothing beats putting the coin into the hands of someone who can take an impartial look at your coin and offer an informed opinion.  I have inspected several hundred coins and saved the owners thousands of dollars of certification fees that would have been for naught.

Previously I would include my written inspection report with the coins.  I have begun producing video of the inspection report to better convey my findings.



A Practical Example

A reader sent an email with photos of a coin.
Hey Ken
     Is this worth sending to get graded.  Sorry about pics.....not the greatest
I took a look at his photos but was unable to determine if it was a 1971 DDO, as he suspected.
The reply I sent sounds a lot like the above article.

By asking the question I can tell that the answer must be No.

If you have to ask, it means you dont know.
If you dont know, then you are not doing your homework (determining grade, value, investigating the cost of slabbing).
If you are no doing your homework, having a coin certified would probably be a waste of your money as you are not likely to have done the homework required to sell the coin.

Key data:
Whats the grade?
Whats the anomaly, if one exists?
In its raw state, what is the projected, realistic market value?  Call this X

What is the cost of certification?  Call this Y
In a certified state, what is the realistic market value?  Call this Z

If Z-X is less than Y, then certification is an expense that is not recovered - you lose money.
If Z-X = Y, then you break even, and it took seve, but your ral weeks, no gain for the time and investment.
If Z-X is greater than Y, is the difference worth the time and investment or is it too small to bother with?

From the photos provided I can't offer much enlightenment.
I can not determine if it a Doubled Die.
If it was, the resolution and view selection would make it difficult to determine which one (there are several known 1971 DDO)
Let's say it is 1971 DDO-001.  The general shape of the letters in Liberty suggest it is a possibility.
Variety Vista assigns a value of $100 in MS62.  Coppercoins lists $105 for XF.
Based on these photos, your appears to in the XF-AU range.

If you used PCGS to slab the coin the fee is $16 for modern coins, plus $18 for a variety attribution, plus the $69 membership fee, plus shipping/insurance both ways. 
Y = at least $34 + shipping if you are already a member.

So far, X is maybe $100, if you are an experienced seller and have a clientele in place.  From this will be deducted auction site fees, paypal fees, and income taxes.

Understand, there is rarely much difference between Z and X.  It's the same coin regardless of the holder its in.
If you have a buyer, that buyer will either be interested in die varieties or not.  If they are, they would be able to determine the attribution on their own, without the certification.
Grade can be estimated quite closely using Photograde

Now that you have all this presented pragmatically, you should be able to answer the question for yourself:
Is this worth sending to get graded?
For all the cost, time, and effort, I always look at what else that money, time, and effort could be focused on.
In your case, I think a better investment of the $34 + shipping would be in a suitable camera so you can show detailed photos of the coin to prospective buyers.



KP

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