The Good, The Bad, and The Better

Since the creation of Groups a couple years ago, facebook has had a tremendous impact on the hobby.  Users can share photos, ask questions and get honest answers from competent numismatists.  My friend Dustin Morgan began the Coin Opp group with precisely that purpose in mind. It has grown to over 7000 members with more people joining every day.  I'm one of the administrators of the group so take it from me first hand: IT'S BUSY!

The introduction of Sales groups made it possible for anyone, anywhere to list coins for sale.
The result has seen tens of thousands of people shift their operation from other sites (eBay, for example) to facebook.  The ability to comment on active sales and, if need be, to complain to group moderators about the authenticity of an item is a feature eBay can't touch.  The Coin Opp Sales and Trades Only group has gone as far as vetting sellers and qualifying buyers, making problem free transactions the rule rather than the exception.

There are thousands of people who have been able to improve their situation using the selling features on facebook, many deriving the lion's share of their livelihood from that one site.

The Party's Over

Recent changes in facebook commerce policy have come to light.  Coin sales are prohibited.  Yeah, you read that right:  No more coin sales.

I've talked with administrators and moderators of several coin sales groups.  All of them are reporting an increase in sales posts being removed.  What's more, the trend is accelerating.  I fear that it is only a matter of time before entire groups will be closed down.  With the closings, a whole lot of people will find their income streams dry up overnight.

Choose your reasons for the policy change:
-collapse of Bitcoin value
-other cryptocurrencies, particularly those with aggressive marketing strategies
-influx of counterfeit coins from southeast Asia

The reasons behind the policy change is not divulged.  There has been conjecture that the ban may be lifted, but with a fee involved.  A fee service was first offered as a hidden motive when the groups first became operational.  Whatever their agenda may be, the enterprises of thousands of people does not seem to be of concern.  It's a safe bet that facebook is not looking out for us.

There are other issues with facebook that are not conducive to a sales platform.  Foremost is the divisive nature of the site.  Although not intentional, it evokes rage in a great many people.  Politics, religion, race, haves and have nots.  Pick your label, there is a counterlabel.  Pick your platform, there is someone to tear it down.  Tell the world what you did, a third of them offer praise, another third declares you ignoble and threaten to burn your house down.  The rest spend their time posting cat videos.

We Need A Plan

Talking with some folks the general consensus was that coin sales on facebook are doomed.  It will either go to a pay service or be prohibited permanently.  All that is waiting to happen is for fb to get their ducks lined up and shut down all the afflicted groups.  Then its a case of 90 Miles An Hour into a brick wall.
Seeing the end in sight, a few of us got together to discuss options.  The best of these were presented to the coin community on youtube:

The points considered:
-A different website than facebook is required
-Similar features need to be available
-The new venue has to be intuitive to use
-The replacement has to be as close to a mirror of the original groups as possible to best facilitate a migration of the existing coin community.

MeWe.com fits the bill.

The site is as easy to use and learn as facebook.  The learning curve is shallow.  If you figured out facebook you'll find MW to be intuitive.  The features are similar.  Instead of Friends, you have Contacts.  Instead of Private Message, you have Chat.

The Coin Opp group, the Coin Opp Sales and Trades Only group, and Variety & Errors group have been and are being set up to mirror the same methods as the corresponding facebook groups.  They have the same admins and mods.  The same people, doing the same thing, in the same way, but without a foolish, unexplained policy in the way to gum up the works.  Administrators from other facebook coin groups are following the same logic and setting up mirrors of their own.

Same As It Ever Was, only Better

Joining MeWe takes nothing away from facebook.  You can still rave at the ignoble, praise the righteous, and share cat videos to your heart's content.  Do yourself a favor, and save all that for facebook.

Use MeWe exclusively for your coin stuff.  Be it buying, selling, or just asking about coins, we can leave the fractured past behind us and keep things tidy.  For some, MW offers a fresh start, a chance to do it right.  Let's face it, we are coin people.  We enjoy our hobby and want to be around other people enjoying the same interests without the hostility so prevalent before.
You can use your personal page to effectively start a blog.  You can sell coins directly on your personal page without the limits imposed by group rules.  You are free to explore your interests without being pegged into an assigned, expected station, as with family and old friends.
You are free to develop as your free will allows, unencumbered by preconceived identity.

I've always said coin collecting is a hobby of personal development.  Take it to the next level.


Author
mewe.com/i/ken.peavey

Is The Cent Doomed?

If it costs more to make a penny than the penny is worth, at what point does cent production come to a halt?  Once again the spot price of Zinc is approaching danger levels not seen since 2006.  Currently Zinc is priced at $1.60/pound.  US Mint officials must be shaking their heads as they did when copper prices rose above face value.  The solution in the 80s was to alter the composition from 95% copper to 98% zinc.  If prices hold, the options are limited if production is to continue.

Change Dimensions?
In 1982 the weight was reduced from 3.11 grams to 2.5 grams.  While the diameter remained the same, the lower specific gravity of zinc contributed greatly to the lower weight.  Vending companies scream bloody murder at the idea of changes in size - they'll have to retool all those vending machines to accept the new coin dimension.  Being so few vending machine products demand the use of one cent denominations, this argument may not weigh heavily on the decision makers.  Counting and rolling machines would need attention.  Of greater concern would be public acceptance and how the economy would handle a new coin.  There have not been 2 different sizes of the same denomination in circulation size the mid 1800s.

The US has issued coins substantially smaller, the 3 Cent Silver being the smallest at .8 grams.  A smaller coin would decrease material costs but the production cost per unit would be about the same.  Distribution costs would decline some with less fuel for the same face value, but per-trip charges would be unchanged.

I think a smaller size is not a desirable option.

Change Composition
These Zincolns are bad enough.  Hydrozincite (Zinc Rot) has reduced the lifespan of our current pennies to a couple of decades.  Ask any coin roll hunter what they think of the new pennies.  These are junk.  Rather than use them, people are more likely to toss them in a coffee can.  It's too much trouble to mess with messy coins.

A switch to s cheaper metal is possible, but with a loss of durability.  Aluminum is easy to bend and snap.  Glass and ceramics have been talked about, often with a lot of wincing and dubious expressions.  If the money breaks into pieces when dropped, its not looked upon favorably.  Carbon fiber and high tech materials, while potentially more durable, don't have production methods in place capable of producing billions of coins at an affordable price.

A different material does not top the list of viable options.

Eliminate the Cent?
It worked in Canada.  Round it up or down.  Meanwhile the Canadian government has been able to reclaim lots of those now defunct coins.  The loss of seignorage is offset by the material reclamation.

Fact of the matter is a couple hundred years of inflation has removed the cent from daily lives.  We pay with bills, debit and credit cards, automatic electronic payments, and digital accounts.  For the most part, cents are used to make change, and give old ladies something for which to dig around in their purse for 10 minutes when there are 14 people in line behind them.

For now, cents are an integral part of the economy, but not a vital part.  It's our lowest single integer unit of exchange.  To keep things on the up and up, we need it.  Move to rounding, there will be plenty of less scrupulous individuals who will look to use the practice to swindle others.  Still, we're only talking pennies in the swindle.  Practicality sees most pennies filling a coffee can, then rolled up every now and then to take back to the bank.  We empty our pockets at night, refilling them in the morning with bills and quarters for the soda machine.

If the cent were to be discontinued, all those folks saving copper pennies are in for a disappointment.  The cost of separating zinc vs copper cents, then refining the copper cents into 100% copper is cost prohibitive.  You'd need several tons of pennies to even try to make a profit on the metal content.  Shipping and transportion costs will see people dropping them all off at the bank in a heartbeat.

The End is Near
Production costs are primarily dependent on metal content.  Distribution is another consideration.  The cost of shipping 8 billion cents hundreds of miles is already excessive-looking at 50 million pounds for the coins, bags, boxes, rolls, and pallets.  Bring back the fuel costs of 2008, combine it with high metal spot prices and the equation points to a certain end.  I see the Canadian model as the most likely path the US will follow.  Lincolns will become Extincolns.

I give it no more than 10 years.


The Future
The nature of the situation is a fixed face value coin being produced with an inflationary material resource.  At some point, EVERY coin will be forced out of service as material costs rise to exceed face value.  It's not just the penny, they are all doomed.  Make them smaller, maker them cheaper, and they will still be eliminated one by one.  Eliminate the penny, the nickel is next.  Even if the nickel we reduced in size and produced with nickel (or copper) plating on a zinc core, it's only a matter of time until production and distribution costs exceed 5¢ per coin.  At an annual inflation rate of 2%, 30-35 more years will see the nickel become obsolete in daily use.  Listening to my grandmother, everything used to cost a nickel back in the day...a movie, loaf of bread, quart of milk, a car.

The loss of the cent and nickel puts prices into the realm of the single decimal.  That loaf of bread will be $2.1 instead of $2.10.  I've not figured out how the 9/10 of a cent tax on a gallon of gas will be figured in.  This opens the door for sales tax to be rounded to 10%.  A single decimal makes the quarter a questionable coin.  Do we kill it off and replace it with dimes and resized half dollars?  It would make better sense.  At least until they too become too small to bother with.

Jefferson Nickels Ranked By Mintage

In a continuation of my last blog entry ranking Lincoln Cents by mintage, I did the same with Jefferson Nickels.  The list includes All Jefferson Nickels produced from 1938 through 2014 (business strikes only).  I don't yet have the figures for more recent issues added to the Collector Checklist.

As with Lincoln, the top section of the list is dominated by early Proof and recent Satin issues.
1950-D heads the list of business strikes at #57.

There are 263 dates/metals/finishes on this list.

Rank	Mintage		Date	Description
1	50		1964 P	SMS
2	12535		1939	Proof
3	14158		1940	Proof
4	18720		1941	Proof
5	19365		1938	Proof
6	25000		1997 P	Frosted Matte Unc
7	27600		1942 P	Silver Proof
8	29600		1942	Proof
9	51386		1950 P	Proof
10	57500		1951 P	Proof
11	81980		1952 P	Proof
12	128800		1953 P	Proof
13	167703		1994 P	Frosted Matte Unc
14	233300		1954 P	Proof
15	378200		1955 P	Proof
16	583897		2010 P	Satin
16	583897		2010 D	Satin
18	669384		1956 P	Proof
19	745464		2008 P	Satin
19	745464		2008 D	Satin
21	784614		2009 P	Satin
21	784614		2009 D	Satin
23	847361		2006 P	Satin
23	847361		2006 D	Satin
25	875652		1958 P	Proof
26	895628		2007 P	Satin
26	895628		2007 D	Satin
28	1149291		1959 P	Proof
29	1160000		2005 P	American Bison Satin
29	1160000		2005 D	American Bison Satin
29	1160000		2005 P	Ocean in View Satin
29	1160000		2005 D	Ocean in View Satin
33	1237415		2012 S	Proof
34	1237926		2013 S	Proof
35	1247952		1957 P	Proof
36	1673010		2011 S	Proof
37	1689216		2010 S	Proof
38	1691602		1960 P	Proof
39	1860000		1967 P	SMS
40	2086507		1998 S	Proof
41	2169561		2008 S	Proof
42	2179867		2009 S	Proof
43	2260000		1966 P	SMS
44	2360000		1965 P	SMS
45	2525625		1996 S	Proof
46	2577166		2007 S	Proof
47	2612568		1974 S	Proof
48	2630030		1950 D
49	2632810		1970 S	Proof
50	2760339		1973 S	Proof
51	2796678		1997 S	Proof
52	2797481		1995 S	Proof
53	2845450		1975 S	Proof
54	2845450		1976 S	Proof
55	2867787		1991 S	Proof
56	2934631		1969 S	Proof
57	2965422		2004 S	Keelboat Proof
58	2992069		2004 S	Peace Medal Proof
59	3010497		1986 S	Proof
60	3028144		1961 P	Proof
61	3041506		1968 S	Proof
62	3054436		2006 S	Proof
63	3065110		1984 S	Proof
64	3075645		1963 P	Proof
65	3127781		1978 S	Proof
66	3184606		2001 S	Proof
67	3211995		2002 S	Proof
68	3218019		1962 P	Proof
69	3220194		1989 S	Proof
70	3220733		1971 S	Proof
71	3251152		1977 S	Proof
72	3260996		1972 S	Proof
73	3262948		1988 S	Proof
74	3269923		1994 S	Proof
75	3279126		1983 S	Proof
76	3298439		2003 S	Proof
77	3299559		1990 S	Proof
78	3344679		2005 S	American Bison Proof
79	3344679		2005 S	Ocean in View Proof
80	3347966		1999 S	Proof
81	3362821		1985 S	Proof
82	3394792		1993 S	Proof
83	3514000		1939 D
84	3554806		1980 S	Proof
85	3677175		1979 S	T1 Proof
86	Inc Above		1979 S	T2 Proof
87	3857479		1982 S	Proof
88	3950762		1964 P	Proof
89	4047993		2000 S	Proof
90	4063083		1981 S	T1 Proof
91	Inc Above		1981 S	T2 Proof
92	4105000		1938 S
93	4176560		1992 S	Proof
94	4227728		1987 S	Proof
95	5376000		1938 D
96	6630000		1939 S
97	7776000		1951 S
98	8266200		1955 P
99	9716000		1949 S
100	9847386		1950 P
101	11300000		1948 S
102	13560000		1946 S
103	13938000		1942 D
104	15294000		1943 D	Silver
105	17963652		1958 P
106	19210900		1953 S
107	19515365		1938
108	20460000		1951 D
109	20572000		1952 S
110	21640000		1944 S	Silver
111	24720000		1947 S
112	28397291		1959 P
113	28609500		1951 P
114	29384000		1954 S
115	30638000		1952 D
116	32309000		1944 D	Silver
117	32900000		1942 S	Silver
118	35885384		1956 P
119	36498000		1949 D
120	37158000		1945 D	Silver
121	37822000		1947 D
122	39655952		1957 P
123	39690000		1940 S
124	39840000		2009 P
125	43445000		1941 S
126	43540000		1940 D
127	44734000		1948 D
128	45292200		1946 D
129	46772800		1953 P
130	46800000		2009 D
131	47917350		1954 P
132	49818600		1942
133	53432000		1941 D
134	57107602		1960 P
135	57900600		1942 P	Silver
136	58939000		1945 S	Silver
137	59878600		1953 D
138	60652000		1949 P
139	64069980		1952 P
140	67222940		1956 D
141	74464100		1955 D
142	76668244		1961 P
143	89348000		1948 P
144	91227880		1968 D
145	95000000		1947 P
146	100396004		1968 S
147	104060000		1943 S	Silver
148	106884000		1971 P
149	107325800		1967 P
150	110602019		1962 P
151	117136560		1954 D
152	119150000		1944 P	Silver
153	119408100		1945 P	Silver
154	120627535		1939
155	123099631		1969 S
156	136131380		1965 P
157	136828900		1957 D
158	156208283		1966 P
159	160738240		1959 D
160	161116000		1946 P
161	168249120		1958 D
162	176499158		1940
163	178851645		1963 P
164	181772000		1975 P
165	192582180		1960 D
166	202036000		1972 P
167	202807500		1969 D
168	203283720		1941
169	229342760		1961 D
170	229920000		2010 D
171	241464814		1970 S
172	260640000		2010 P
173	261405000		1973 D
174	271165000		1943 P	Silver
175	276829460		1963 D
176	277373000		1974 D
177	279840000		2008 P
178	280195720		1962 D
179	292355000		1982 P
180	297313460		1977 D
181	313092780		1978 D
182	316144800		1971 D
183	325867672		1979 D
184	344880000		2004 D	Keelboat
185	345600000		2008 D
186	351694600		1972 D
187	361440000		2004 P	Peace Medal
188	361819140		1986 D
189	364801843		1981 D
190	366720000		2004 P	Keelboat
191	367124000		1976 P
192	371499481		1987 P
193	372000000		2004 D	Peace Medal
194	373726544		1982 D
195	383040000		2003 D
196	384396000		1973 P
197	391308000		1978 P
198	394080000		2005 P	Ocean in View
199	399552000		1992 P
200	401875300		1975 D
201	406084135		1993 D
202	410590604		1987 D
203	411120000		2005 D	Ocean in View
204	412076000		1993 P
205	436496678		1991 D
206	441840000		2003 P
207	448320000		2005 P	American Bison
208	450000000		2011 P
209	450565113		1992 D
210	459747446		1985 D
211	463188000		1979 P
212	464640000		2012 P
213	466640000		1997 D
214	470972000		1997 P
215	487680000		2005 D	American Bison
216	502323448		1980 D
217	515485380		1970 D
218	517675146		1984 D
219	529280000		2002 P
220	536726276		1983 D
221	536883483		1986 P
222	540240000		2011 D
223	558960000		2012 D
224	561615000		1983 P
225	563964147		1976 D
226	570720000		2014 D
227	570842474		1989 D
228	571680000		2007 P
229	585376000		1977 P
230	593004000		1980 P
231	601752000		1974 P
232	607440000		2013 P
233	614104000		1991 P
234	615600000		2013 D
235	626160000		2007 D
236	627680000		2001 D
237	635380000		1998 D
238	635520000		2014 P
239	647114962		1985 P
240	657504000		1981 P
241	661636000		1990 P
242	663771652		1988 D
243	663938503		1990 D
244	675704000		2001 P
245	688292000		1998 P
246	691200000		2002 D
247	693120000		2006 P
248	715762110		1994 D
249	722160000		1994 P
250	746769000		1984 P
251	771360000		1988 P
252	774156000		1995 P
253	809280000		2006 D
254	817736000		1996 D
255	829332000		1996 P
256	846240000		2000 P
257	888112000		1995 D
258	898812000		1989 P
259	1028622762		1964 P
260	1066720000		1999 D
261	1212000000		1999 P
262	1509220000		2000 D
263	1787297160		1964 D