The BIG Show Email Ladder

Axiom #7 states that coin collecting is a journey of personal development.  To best explain the email ladder, I think it best to take you on my journey these last few years.  Bear with me, there are some disconnected parts to the story but they all come together later.

I've mentioned in some livestreams that I conduct most of my business over email.  It's a substantial

percentage of my volume and the reason why I must protect my paypal account and not accept Friends and Family payments.   I've been doing this for years, have developed long term relations with several knowledgable and dependable collectors, several of whom I have watched develop from casual collector to serious investor.  As you know (or will find out eventually), coin collecting is a lifetime hobby.  Part of it is forming those relationships that last for years.  Earlier this month I lost one of my coin buddies.  He had been buying from me for nearly 20 years.  One of his goals was to build a complete set of Lincoln Cents for his grandson's high school graduation, which we barely completed in time.  I understand the grandson is finishing his junior year at the University of Florida.  Ave et wale.

After closing the diner I focused my attention on my coin enterprise.  I have done some piece work for an industrial contractor from time to time.  I worked there full time for a couple decades but the years have caught up with me.  Climbing through manways and crawling through pipes to inspect vessels is proving to be too much for my worn out back and knees.  For the past two years I have relied more and more on my coin enterprise as my primary source of income and it's working out well.  The loss of Mr Parker will slow things down but I'm sure I can recover.  Perhaps his grandson will find motivation from his set of Lincolns to continue the hobby.

In addition to this blog, I produce coin videos.  Early last fall I started broadcasting livesteam shows.  You'll find Coin Class is quite popular, seen most Saturdays at 3 PM Eastern time.  I pick a subject and explore it in depth, explaining it as best I can in order that coin collectors can gain a better understanding of the hobby.  Friday Night Madness is a live coin sale in which viewers can interact in chat and ask question about the items being offered.  My favorite is The BIG Show: a viewer supported giveaway that puts old, rare, valueable, and collectible coins in the hands of people who will appreciate them and become better collectors as a result.

The BIG Show started as a raffle.  Donations to the show would earn the person more chances to win the whole lot.  This did not last as it was completely illegal (a First Class Misdemeanor in Florida) and a violation of youtube policies.  The remedy was to separate the donations from the reward.  Now, anyone can win but since there is no direct incentive for the supporters, the donations (and hence the size of the prize) have experienced more shrinkage than George Castanza in the cold Atlantic.  I've been looking for a means of rewarding those people who make the show possible.
Wednesday Wheats is another BIG Show, but with wheat cents as the dominant coin in the prize.  This show has also been suffering from a lack of incentive for the supporters.  Contributions have fallen so low than continuing the show has come into question.
There is more that I want to do with this coin hobby of mine.  With all the shows my time has been in great demand.  I need to free some up for other pursuits.  Changes need to be made lest I stagnate.

Here's whats going on...
I've made some contacts over the years.  From time to time I come across some pretty good deals.  In particular, there are a couple of new opportunities that have come to my attention as my business volume has grown.  I'm at a point where I can take advantage of these.  What's more, I think I can bring together several parts to make a greater whole.

First, I need to rearrange my schedule amd find time.
Wednesday Wheats has to be put on the back burner for now, possible from now on.  It's a lot of work to produce the show and I have no gain for the effort.
Friday Night Madness is hit or miss.  If I could free up those two blocks of time, I release the entire week. Coin Class works well on Saturday Afternoons but 24 hours before the next show sometimes is not enough.  It was Friday night, Saturday afternoon, Sunday afternoon.  Three shows in 42 hours?  Effective immediately The BIG Show will be moved to Sunday evening at 9:30.  I'll be able to go to my brother's house for Sunday Dinner.

Next, bring the incentive back to supporters of The BIG Show
I can't change youtube policy or Florida statue, but I can offer a perk to those who support the show.  Those pretty good deals?...I can offer them to the people who support the show.   Using those new opportunities to which I alluded, I'm sure I can come up with more of those offers.

Go with what works
I've been using email to offer coins to a few select people.  What I should have been doing is expanding that system.  If the stick ain't broke, don't fix it, and if there is one stick that has proven to work well for me, that's it.  I've been selling coins on facebook...the stuff my power buyers did not need or want.  Facebook has outlawed coin sales.  It is becoming increasingly problematic.  MeWe has been set up as a back up plan but until facebook shuts down the whole show people will resist making the change to a new platform.  Email is personal.  Its tough to form a personal or professional relationship with 8000 people.

The system I've develop over the years is pretty simple:  I offer the best stuff to the people who spend the most and work my way down.  It's a ladder.
Seems to make good sense to me to include people who support The BIG Show in this ladder.  From my point of view I have to add a single column on a spreadsheet and it only takes a moment to keep it up to date.  I can get more stuff to offer more people, thats no problem at all, and I can offer it at pretty reasonable prices, especially if there are a bunch of people involved.  It won't be instant.  It will take some time to put all the pieces together and make the changes in my setup behind the scenes, but with the extra time freed up it should be a piece of cake.  I've already started to order more shipping and printing supplies

Here's the plan:

• To Qualify to get on the list you have to donate to The BIG Show at least once, or several times to reach a total of $50 or more.  
• To Be Added to the list and get offers from me by email, you have to ask: kpeavey@live.com  I'm not going to send out email offers to people who don't ask because that's called spam.  Spam drives people away and it's not a good way to treat people anyway.
• If you want to get of the email list, all you have to do is reply to the email with UNSUBSCRIBE in the subject line.
• When I send out an offer, you have 24 hours to respond.  Take all, some or none.  If you wait, the offer goes to the next on the list and they have dibs for 24 hours.  You might still be able to get it.  If not, I'm sure to have something in a few days.  
• If you know you won't be buying for a while, you can help me out by replying to the email with TAKE A BREAK.  This keeps you in the list but I can move on to the next person immediately.  When you are ready, just let me know.
• To move up the ladder, keep supporting the show.  It's a simple matter to add a donation to the existing total in your column.  Those on the bottom may not receive as many offers as those at the top.  The best stuff goes fast.  
• Coins submitted to be included in the show will count towards ladder rank at their retail value.
• Purchases will also count towards ladder rank.   
• There won't be 1000s of people on this ladder.  I'm just one man.  As the list grows I may or may not be able to extend offers to everyone.  It may be I will need to bring in help, but that bridge will be crossed when reached.

The ladder is not a popularity contest.  I wont be fielding questions in regards to a persons ranking.  If you dont think you are getting enough offers or the offers are not so great, support the show more so you move up.  It may simply be that I have reached my limit of ability.

Terms Of Sale
Same as they've always been
-Payment due within 30 days of first item on the invoice.  The purpose here is to let you build a large order to save on shipping.  You can always pay earlier.  At $100 or more it would help me out if you went ahead and paid.
-Paypal is the prefered method.  I'll send you an invoice.  Pay the invoice.  This gets you buyer protection and I get seller protection.
-14 day return window gives you plenty of time to think about it.  You are responsible for shipping costs.

Should I Get This Coin Graded?

This is a question I get asked repeatedly by new collectors who don't fully understand the coin market:  "Should I get this coin graded?"

The short answer is a resounding NO.

The long answer takes a more detailed explanation.  See my Coin Class video from several months back, embedded here for your amusement.

Plenty of folks will tell you to get it graded.  This may not be practical advice and is often given from an uninformed position.  Ultimately, you must make that decision on your own.  If you are unable to answer that question on your own, then you have not done the research required to make an informed decision.  If you have not done the research, you would probably be throwing your money out the window.

Let's say I can sell my house right now for $100,000.
If I were to renovate the kitchen, I could sell my house for $120,000.  BUT, if it costs more than $20,000 to renovate the kitchen, I end up with less than I started with.  If I do all the work myself, maybe I could do it cheaper, but how much would I have to save to make it worth the effort?
There is Opportunity Cost involved:  What if I invested that money in something else I could sell for more than I would make fixing up the kitchen?

The Susan B Anthony Dollar pictured below is a more practical example.  In MS65 condition, Numismedia suggests a fair market value of about $10.
NGC charges $16 to slab a Susan B Anthony Dollar, plus shipping and insurance.  This does not include the minimum $69 fee to become a member, whatever that means.
Fact of the matter is, if the member who had this coin slabbed had instead spent the dollar on junk food, it would have made a better investment.  If it had been thrown into a muddy bottom pond, the owner would have been better off.

Let's put math to work so you can see what I'm talking about:

• Expected market value of a coin, without certification = A
• Cost of certification, membership, shipping, insurance = B
• Expected market value of a coin, with certification = C
• C - (A + B) = D

If D is less than zero then you lose.
If D = zero, then you made no gain for your efforts.  B would have been better spent elsewhere.

Money Down The Drain

If D is greater than zero, then by how much?  Was it worth the time and effort?

You have to do the research required to estimate the expected market value of the coin.  This requires the skills to accurately grade the coin as well as some experience with the coin market.  Really, if you are not going to sell the coin, why have it slabbed in the first place?  

Since grading accuracy is required to determine value, you should already have a close estimate of the grade of the coin.  Only then would you be able to estimate the value of the slabbed coin.  If you are that skilled, why would you need a Third Party Grader?

Go back to the early 80s.  Back then it was not possible to send electronic photos around the world.  It was an expensive proposition to photograph a coin and send out catalogs to potential buyers.  TPGs came into being to facilitate Sight Unseen trading.  Fast forward to the present day.  A $20 digital camera can take professional quality photos.  The internet can send those photos to every point on the globe in seconds.  The need for sight unseen trading is gone.

I also want to dispel the notion that certification adds value.  The old adage is as pertinent now as ever:  Buy the coin, not the holder.  Some of these TPGs offer a guarantee that the coin is genuine and accurately graded.  That guarantee does add a slight value to the purchase, but the added value is a small percentage of the value of the coin.  Realistically the coin needs to be valued at a couple hundred bucks at least to make the investment worthwhile, and even then you would probably only get the benefit of the membership if you have a large number of coins certified.

The Barry Specimen

The Barry Specimen
The 1914-D Lincoln Cent pictured here was found by B Barry of Florida in, of all place, a coinstar reject tray.  Photos were posted on a social networking site and folks commented on the coin.  Some offered grades ranging from F to AU.  A few expressed interest in purchasing the coin if it was authenticated.  Several proclaimed the coin be graded ASAP!

Mr Barry sent the coin to NGC for certification through a dealer.  The cost with shipping, insurance, and the dealer's fee was around $80.

The coin went to auction on eBay, where I acquired the coin.  I was not surprised that NOT ONE of those folks who said to get it graded placed a bid on the coin.  It's easy to spend someone else's money.

The coin came back with a Details rating.  With the rating, there is no guarantee as would be offered on a straight graded coin.  For $80, all the seller got was a really nice holder.

When is it a good idea?
There are instances when it makes sense to submit a coin for grading and certification.  The first requirement is the expected market value of the certified coin exceeds the expected market value of the raw coin.  Other reasons include, but are not limited to

• The coin is Rare.
• The coin is Valuable
• The coin is Unimpaired
• The coin is of Superior Grade
• Certification will allow the coin to be sold in a major auction
• The coin will be included in a Registry Set

Recently an example of a 1969-S DDO-001 was found in circulation.  The coin was sent for certification and will likely proceed to Heritage Auctions where it will easily fetch several thousand dollars.  Prior to sending it for certification it was examined by my friend Dustin Morgan.  It was on his recommendation that the coin was submitted.

Have It Inspected First

Before bearing the cost of slabbing a coin, do your homework.  Solicit opinions in the various social networks.  See if there is substantial and credible interest in the coin.  You may choose to submit the coin for inspection.   Nothing beats putting the coin into the hands of someone who can take an impartial look at your coin and offer an informed opinion.  I have inspected several hundred coins and saved the owners thousands of dollars of certification fees that would have been for naught.

Previously I would include my written inspection report with the coins.  I have begun producing video of the inspection report to better convey my findings.

A Practical Example

A reader sent an email with photos of a coin.

Hey Ken

     Is this worth sending to get graded.  Sorry about pics.....not the greatest

I took a look at his photos but was unable to determine if it was a 1971 DDO, as he suspected.
The reply I sent sounds a lot like the above article.

By asking the question I can tell that the answer must be No.

If you have to ask, it means you dont know.
If you dont know, then you are not doing your homework (determining grade, value, investigating the cost of slabbing).
If you are no doing your homework, having a coin certified would probably be a waste of your money as you are not likely to have done the homework required to sell the coin.

Key data:
Whats the grade?
Whats the anomaly, if one exists?
In its raw state, what is the projected, realistic market value?  Call this X

What is the cost of certification?  Call this Y
In a certified state, what is the realistic market value?  Call this Z

If Z-X is less than Y, then certification is an expense that is not recovered - you lose money.
If Z-X = Y, then you break even, and it took seve, but your ral weeks, no gain for the time and investment.
If Z-X is greater than Y, is the difference worth the time and investment or is it too small to bother with?

From the photos provided I can't offer much enlightenment.
I can not determine if it a Doubled Die.
If it was, the resolution and view selection would make it difficult to determine which one (there are several known 1971 DDO)
Let's say it is 1971 DDO-001.  The general shape of the letters in Liberty suggest it is a possibility.
Variety Vista assigns a value of $100 in MS62.  Coppercoins lists $105 for XF.
Based on these photos, your appears to in the XF-AU range.

If you used PCGS to slab the coin the fee is $16 for modern coins, plus $18 for a variety attribution, plus the $69 membership fee, plus shipping/insurance both ways. 
Y = at least $34 + shipping if you are already a member.

So far, X is maybe $100, if you are an experienced seller and have a clientele in place.  From this will be deducted auction site fees, paypal fees, and income taxes.

Understand, there is rarely much difference between Z and X.  It's the same coin regardless of the holder its in.
If you have a buyer, that buyer will either be interested in die varieties or not.  If they are, they would be able to determine the attribution on their own, without the certification.
Grade can be estimated quite closely using Photograde. 

Now that you have all this presented pragmatically, you should be able to answer the question for yourself:
Is this worth sending to get graded?
For all the cost, time, and effort, I always look at what else that money, time, and effort could be focused on.
In your case, I think a better investment of the $34 + shipping would be in a suitable camera so you can show detailed photos of the coin to prospective buyers.


KP